From natesilver.net
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Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
on Sat, 1PM
From natesilver.net
Silicon Valley's gamble on Trump isn't paying off
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Tech stocks have tumbled since Trump took office. More about the mindset that led much of the Valley to support him in the first place.
on Fri, 4PM
From natesilver.net
Wall Street thinks Trump's tariffs will eat Main Street alive
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Sometimes, the stock market is the economy.
on Apr 5
From natesilver.net
SBSQ #19: What is Elon's endgame?
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Plus, whether American elections are under threat. And, on a brighter note, an NCAA basketball mini “model talk.”
on Apr 2
From natesilver.net
Republicans are acting like there’s a Blue Wave coming
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Could Democrats retake the House before the midterms?
on Apr 1
From natesilver.net
How low is Trump's popularity floor?
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So far, the decline in his approval ratings is typical for new presidents. But second-term presidents can have more downside.
on Mar 22
From natesilver.net
2025 Women's March Madness Predictions
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Silver Bulletin odds for every round of the tournament.
on Mar 20
From natesilver.net
2025 March Madness Predictions
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Silver Bulletin odds for the men's NCAA tournament.
on Mar 17
From natesilver.net
Democrats should have shut it down
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The party’s risk aversion continues to harm it.
on Mar 14
From natesilver.net
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We're back to publishing more models and data, in addition to our newsletters. Welcome to Phase III of the site.
on Mar 13
From natesilver.net
Silver Bulletin Women's College Basketball (SBCB) ratings 🏀
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Our Elo-derived ratings for all 362 women's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
on Mar 13
From natesilver.net
Will Wall Street turn on Trump — and Elon?
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The vibes are changing on Main Street domestically and abroad, and now in the stock market, too.
on Mar 11
From natesilver.net
Silver Bulletin College Basketball (SBCB) ratings 🏀
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Our Elo-derived ratings for all 364 men's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
on Mar 9
From natesilver.net
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Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
on Mar 6
From natesilver.net
A few words about FiveThirtyEight
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Silver Bulletin will begin publishing some new features soon — including Trump approval ratings. But the media just lost an extremely valuable resource.
on Mar 5
From natesilver.net
A chat with Paul Krugman — and a few words about Trump
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The center and the left should be able to find common ground.
on Feb 27
From natesilver.net
Elon Musk and spiky intelligence
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Like a lot of successful people, he’s world-class in some dimensions of intelligence but deficient in others.
on Feb 26
From natesilver.net
Why Trump killed congestion pricing
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New York’s plan has winners and losers — but this is an exercise in zero-sum politics.
on Feb 21
From natesilver.net
How did the polls do in 2024? It’s complicated.
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By one important measure, they performed better than ever. By another, they had their worst year yet. The truth is somewhere in between.
on Feb 17
From natesilver.net
Twitter or Bluesky? How about neither.
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Two fundamental problems constrain the business model of the “digital town square.”
on Feb 13
From natesilver.net
The game theory of Trump's tariff threats
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Why he’s picking on Canada and Mexico — and why he’s playing a dangerous game.
on Feb 4
From natesilver.net
Luka Doncic and the market for lemons
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What does the most shocking trade of my lifetime reveal about the new Lakers superstar?
on Feb 2
From natesilver.net
SBSQ #17: How should you prepare for an AI future?
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Plus, why has Georgia stayed relatively blue? And who holds the cards in Trump vs. Elon?
on Jan 31
From natesilver.net
It's time to come to grips with AI
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After the election, the timelines are accelerating. We need a pluralistic debate about its implications — but the left is dealing itself out.
on Jan 28
From natesilver.net
113 predictions for Trump's second term
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From constitutional crises to Mars and back again.
on Jan 26
From natesilver.net
Are we entering a Conservative Golden Age?
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Or will the vibe soon shift back to the left?
on Jan 23
From natesilver.net
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He made a triple devil’s bargain: with the pandemic, his age, and a Democratic Party that can’t get its priorities straight.
on Jan 20
From natesilver.net
Polling is becoming more of an art than a science
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We asked pollsters what went wrong — and right — in 2024, and what’s in store for 2026.
on Jan 16
From natesilver.net
Against revisionist history on Biden 2024
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You can like the president or his policies. But his campaign was a disaster. And he didn't just drop out — he lost.
on Jan 10
From natesilver.net
The rise and fall of "fact-checking"
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"Fact-checkers" as the high priests of journalism had a political beginning at Facebook — and have met a political end.
on Jan 8
From natesilver.net
Nobody goes to New York City anymore. It’s too crowded.
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The subway has problems but remains an incredibly popular means of transit.
on Dec 24
From natesilver.net
How the Indigo Blob runs a bluff
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Were efforts to conceal Biden’s age-related decline a “conspiracy”?
on Dec 20
From natesilver.net
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Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s plan would literally make the average American’s life darker.
on Dec 17
From natesilver.net
Is it crazy to pay Juan Soto $765 million?
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Running the numbers on the largest contract in baseball history.
on Dec 14
From natesilver.net
Don't mistake Democratic partisan orthodoxy for a "coherent" philosophy
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In a two-party system, the party coalitions are full of contradictions — and the Democrats' are becoming more obvious.
on Dec 11
From natesilver.net
Part II: The failed rebrand of Kamala Harris
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From Diet Woke to Brat Summer to ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
on Dec 6
From natesilver.net
Part I: Democrats' risk-aversion helped to re-elect Trump
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Part 1 of a 3-part autopsy on the Harris campaign. Plus, a GiveDirectly fundraiser!
on Dec 3
From natesilver.net
The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency
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Hunter Biden's pardon is another log on the fire.
on Dec 2
From natesilver.net
SBSQ #15: Democrats have a "fool me twice" problem
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Plus, what might change in the model for 2028. And prediction markets: lucky or good?
on Nov 26
From natesilver.net
Kamala Harris was a replacement-level candidate
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Trump's win is mostly Biden's fault, not hers. Still, she was a mediocre candidate in a year when Democrats needed a strong one.
on Nov 16
From natesilver.net
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And that might not be such a bad thing for Democrats, especially with their Electoral College disadvantage erased.
on Nov 12
From natesilver.net
The model exactly predicted the most likely election map
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The actual map was the most common one in our 80,000 simulations! Even so, it contained some revealing surprises.
on Nov 7
From natesilver.net
The story of Trump's win was foretold in New York City
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The Democratic Party needs to ask WTF just happened, and the answers may be right there on the 7 train.
on Nov 7
From natesilver.net
Silver Bulletin 2024 election night model
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All the (election night) numbers for Trump and Harris.
on Nov 5
From natesilver.net
SBSQ #14: Election Day lightning round!
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All your last-minute questions, answered. Actually, just 13 of them.
on Nov 5
From natesilver.net
A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast
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So fine: let's go to the tiebreaker round.
on Nov 5
From natesilver.net
The polls are close, but that doesn’t mean the results will be
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A normal polling error in either direction could give either candidate a decisive victory.
on Nov 4
From natesilver.net
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
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Either Ann Selzer and the New York Times, or the rest of the polling industry.
on Nov 3