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From manifold.markets

First Trump vs Harris presidential debate mention market: which words/phrases will be said?

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Each word/phrase resolves YES if any presidential candidate says it during the first Trump vs Harris presidential debate (currently scheduled for September 10); otherwise NO. Plurals, possessives, and contractions count but otherwise an exact match is required, see specific rules below. If no...

#manifold #prediction

on Sep 6

From manifold.markets

What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers)

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Ilya Sutskever announced today that he will be creating a new company Safe Superintelligence (SSI). What will be true of this company by EOY 2025? Answers will resolve early if the criteria are met before EOY 2025. Answers starting with “I will believe” refer to @mr_mino , the market creator,...

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on Sep 5

From manifold.markets

First Trump / Harris Debate prop bets

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options resolve n/a if debate doesn't happen i'll try to put together a default 'what does it mean to say a word' edge case rule. Submitters do not judge options, and submitter comment clarifications about meaning are not binding (because in past markets where they were, nobody saw the...

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on Aug 10