#prediction
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From manifold.markets
1 1
Since the debate, many markets have drastically shifted their odds. This market will resolve to Overreacting/Underreacting/Reacting sanely if at least two out of the three markets are within the following ranges during 20 out of the 24 hours before market closure. If the odds are fluctuating too...
22h ago
1
From manifold.markets
1 1
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race by the specified times. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden and/or his...
12h ago
1
From manifold.markets
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
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These options resolve YES if Joe Biden says the exact sequence of words during his upcoming ABC interview with George Stephanopoulos. This follows the same rules as the debate market. This market will close before the interview is released. If the interview has not been released by July 15th,...
9h ago
1
From manifold.markets
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
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57% chance. The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Democratic Party (which happens at the Democratic National Convention). If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution. If a candidate...
19h ago
1
From manifold.markets
Who will be the Democratic nominee for vice president in the 2024 U.S. elections?
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Resolves to the person chosen for VICE PRESIDENT by the DNC, if listed here when chosen. If the answer is unambiguously duplicated, resolves to the version added first. Otherwise OTHER. This is currently set to close at the expected end of the Democratic National Convention in 2024. May adjust...
10h ago
