From manifold.markets
First Trump vs Harris presidential debate mention market: which words/phrases will be said?
1 1
Each word/phrase resolves YES if any presidential candidate says it during the first Trump vs Harris presidential debate (currently scheduled for September 10); otherwise NO. Plurals, possessives, and contractions count but otherwise an exact match is required, see specific rules below. If no...
on Sep 6
From manifold.markets
Will this market have a trading volume higher than 10 000 000 Ṁ?
1 1
100.0% chance.
on Sep 5
From manifold.markets
What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers)
1 1
Ilya Sutskever announced today that he will be creating a new company Safe Superintelligence (SSI). What will be true of this company by EOY 2025? Answers will resolve early if the criteria are met before EOY 2025. Answers starting with “I will believe” refer to @mr_mino , the market creator,...
on Sep 5
From manifold.markets
First Trump / Harris Debate prop bets
1 2
options resolve n/a if debate doesn't happen i'll try to put together a default 'what does it mean to say a word' edge case rule. Submitters do not judge options, and submitter comment clarifications about meaning are not binding (because in past markets where they were, nobody saw the...
on Aug 10
From manifold.markets
Who or what is behind the drones around central New Jersey?
0 1
resolves YES to all that are true at the end of the investigation [image]
on Sun, 4PM
From manifold.markets
Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2025?
0 1
31% chance. Resolves yes if there is a model that receives a natural language description (e.g."Give me a video of a puppy playing with a kitten") and outputs a realistic looking video matching the description. It does *not* have to be *undetectable* as AI generated, merely "realistic enough"....
on Sun, 2PM
From manifold.markets
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
0 1
34% chance. The Millennium Prize Problems are well-known complex mathematical problems selected by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The Clay Institute has pledged a US$1 million prize for the first correct solution to each problem. The AI system must independently solve the Millennium...
on Sun, 1AM
From manifold.markets
Who will win the TikTok vs The US Government case to stop the TikTok ban?
0 0
Full link to filing here. I will resolve based on the success of TikTok in acquiring their sought relief, specifically: [image]Broadly, a ruling that the entire law or at least the portions that allow the US government to enforce the "tiktok ban" (via bans on app and cloud hosting) are...
on Sun, 1AM
From manifold.markets
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?
0 1
25% chance.
on Sat, 8PM
From manifold.markets
Luigi Mangione Pre-Trial Prop Bets (Add Answers)
0 1
This refers to Luigi Mangione’s New York murder trial. I will resolve these as they occur. Unless otherwise noted, all others will be resolved upon completion of the trial. If/when trial date becomes more clear, I will open another market for events specifically occurring during the...
on Sat, 11AM
From manifold.markets
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?
0 0
12% chance. The United States has a history of government shutdowns. The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019. For the purposes of this question, a "government shutdown" must involve furloughing of workers. For example, the brief shutdown on 9 Feb 2018 lasted only a few...
on Sat, 1AM
From manifold.markets
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena Ranks)?
0 1
This question is the same as this one but resolves based on the rank decided by ChatBot Arena. If two models from different companies rank #1, then the question resolves 50% each. Right now (Mar 16, 2024) both OpenAI and Anthropic hold rank #1.
on Fri, 10PM
From manifold.markets
Bitcoin below $90K in December?
0 1
35% chance. Resolution Criteria: The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) falls below $90,000 USD at any point during December 2024, based on the last price in any 1-minute candlestick on Coinbase. • If Bitcoin does not fall below $90K during December 2024, the market resolves...
on Fri, 4PM
From manifold.markets
What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)?
0 1
In case there is no information for a long period of time, will close in the Summer of 2025. Answers with no new information will be N/A’ed in order to not tie up mana indefinitely. Update 2024-16-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be based on official sources Multiple...
on Fri, 3PM
From manifold.markets
0 1
When is the next US government shutdown? Update 2024-19-12 (PST): The market will remain open and be extended each year until a government shutdown occurs. (AI summary of creator comment)
on Fri, 11AM
From manifold.markets
Will OpenAI release o2 as part of the 12 days of Christmas?
0 1
30% chance. https://x.com/sama/with_replies Update 2024-19-12 (PST): The market will resolve as YES if OpenAI releases either o2 or o3 as part of the 12 days of Christmas. (AI summary of creator comment)
on Fri, 9AM
From manifold.markets
Which companies will be in the Top10 worldwide by market cap at the end of 2024?
0 1
This question will be resolved accordingly to the data from https://companiesmarketcap.com/ on January 1st 2025 at 12:00 UTC. (If the page had some technical failures, I'd adjust this time accordingly or change the source.) This question will not be affected by any name changes. If companies...
on Fri, 6AM
From manifold.markets
Will there be a US government shutdown in 2024?
0 0
69% chance. The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019 during the Trump administration. There were also government shutdowns in 2018 and 2013. Will the US government shutdown again in 2024 for any amount of time? Same as Will there be a US government shutdown before the...
on Fri, 1AM
From manifold.markets
[ACX 2024] Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?
0 1
59% chance. Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20774/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources...
on Thu, 8PM
From manifold.markets
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?
0 1
45% chance. The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019. There were also government shutdowns in 2018 and 2013. Will the US government shutdown by the end of 2024 for any amount of time?
on Thu, 6AM
From manifold.markets
Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2024?
0 1
Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*. Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on...
on Thu, 1AM
From manifold.markets
[ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
0 1
1.0% chance.
on Wed, 9AM
From manifold.markets
Will there be any unfaithful electors in 2024?
0 1
Resolved NO. Will any members of the Electoral College vote for a candidate other than the one they are assigned to?
on Dec 18
From manifold.markets
In the 2024 US presidential election, will there be at least one faithless elector?
0 0
1.0% chance. "In the United States Electoral College, a faithless elector is an elector who does not vote for the candidates for U.S. President and U.S. Vice President for whom the elector had pledged to vote, and instead votes for another person for one or both offices or abstains from voting."...
on Dec 18
From manifold.markets
Who will be Destiny's 2024 Buddy of the Year?
0 0
The 2023 Buddy of the Year market seemed to be a success among Destiny fans so I have created another for 2024. Please don't repeat answers or specify the same person multiple different ways (I will resolve to the earliest answer in that case).
on Dec 18
From manifold.markets
Will Trudeau still be prime minister by the end of 2024
0 0
66% chance. Resolutions is self evident
on Dec 17
From manifold.markets
Will Bitcoin be above $100k at the close of December 2024?
0 1
76% chance. The market will be resolved according to the data from Tradingview: Binance Spot chart [BTC/USD] at the time of the monthly close. The results will be available 24 hours after closing to resolve.
on Dec 17
From manifold.markets
Which world leaders will leave office in 2024?
0 0
Add names only. Must officially leave office by end of 2024. Only after August 25. Leave office in any way. Removed, deceased, resigned, etc... Must be reported by multiple credible sources.
on Dec 17
From manifold.markets
Will Chrome, Safari, or Firefox add native support for local LLMs in 2024? (Opera just did)
0 0
90% chance. Opera issued a press release titled "Opera becomes the first major browser with built-in access to local AI models." Will any other major browsers follow suit*? [image]* Access in beta or dev mode would suffice to resolve this market as yes Update 2024-15-12 (PST): Canary...
on Dec 16
From manifold.markets
2024: Will Bitcoin reach $110,000?
0 1
74% chance. [markets]via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin [image]
on Dec 16
From manifold.markets
When will video chat with GPT-4o be generally available?
0 0
Yesterday OpenAI have introduced a new model GPT-4o with video chat capabilities: https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/. The model itself is already available in ChatGPT app. However, the low-latency video chat is not. This question will resolve positively as soon as all paying ChatGPT users...
on Dec 16
From manifold.markets
When will Nintendo announce a Switch 2 release date?
0 0
Resolves to the month where Nintendo announces the date of their next console release. The form of announcement does not matter. It could be a mere tweet. It must be official Nintendo communication channel though. A leak is not sufficient. The release date itself does not matter. It does not...
on Dec 16
From manifold.markets
Will Kash Patel be FBI Director?
0 1
74% chance. This market will be settle as YES if Kash Patel becomes Director of the FBI by the close date of the market. The market may close early as NO if Trump at some point withdraws his nomination or a consensus of credible reporting indicates the president is no longer pursuing the...
on Dec 15
From manifold.markets
Will entropy-based sampling improve Llama3.1 on reasoning benchmarks in 2024?
0 0
21% chance. Entropy-based sampling (colloquially, "the shrek sampler") is a term for a new class of sampling methods for LLMs, intended to "simulate something similar to o1's CoT or [Anthropic's models] to get much better results using inference time...
on Dec 13
From manifold.markets
Who will be Time Magazine's 2024 Person of the Year?
0 0
Resolution criteria same as @Joshua market for 2023. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Joshua/who-will-be-time-person-of-the-year)
on Dec 12
From manifold.markets
0 0
This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about the Green Party's bid to previous 3rd party election bids. Dave Leip's...
on Dec 12
From manifold.markets
Will Donald Trump be the TIME 2024 Person of the Year?
0 1
99.0% chance.
on Dec 12
From manifold.markets
0 0
60% chance. Using the publicly available version when released, so not including red teamers. . Specifically, with the main focus of the video on an identifiable sexual act. Has to be at least somewhat replicable. Three months after release.
on Dec 11
From manifold.markets
What will be the top 10 most viewed Wikipedia articles of 2024?
0 0
The Wikimedia Foundation celebrates the end of the year with a list of the English-language Wikipedia articles that received the most pageviews. This question resolves YES to each of the English-language articles that the Wikimedia Foundation affirms as the top 10 most viewed of 2024. Please...
on Dec 10
From manifold.markets
Are these two supposed pictures of the United Healthcare CEO assassin actually different people?
0 0
9% chance. People have pointed out their jackets, bags, and facial features might not line up. [image][image]Remember, kids: YES = DIFFERENT people, NO = SAME person. Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will be resolved based on official police sources and creator's...
on Dec 10
From manifold.markets
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's first Defense Secretary?
0 0
64% chance. Refers to the first person in Trump's second term who is nominated, confirmed by the Senate, and appointed to the post, or who receives a recess appointment. I may push the close date back if needed.
on Dec 10
From manifold.markets
Who will be the next US Secretary of Defense?
0 0
There is speculation that the current SecDef Lloyd Austin will not hold the position for much longer. This market resolves to the name of the next person who is appointed to the position. It does not count anyone who is only Acting SecDef. This market stays open until there is a new Secretary...
on Dec 10
From manifold.markets
Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2024?
0 0
9% chance.
on Dec 10
From manifold.markets
Will there be at least 4 decisive classical games in the 2024 World Chess Championship?
0 0
Resolved YES.
on Dec 10
From manifold.markets
Will the killer of Brian Thompson be arrested by the end of 2024?
0 0
Resolved YES.
on Dec 9